Imagine you are sailing a ship through dense fog, looking out for land. Your lookout spots species of birds typically found offshore. It now seems likely that you are approaching land, but it is ...

Q: I’ve listened to your podcasts in which you discuss weather predictions, and I’ve heard you mention the onion method. As a kid, I watched my grandmother and her brothers, all Germans from Russia, ...

An inverted rate yield curve – that is, a long-term interest rate that falls to or below the short-term interest rate – seems to have a track record of predicting recessions. The question of leading ...

Some of the most popular indicators for forecasting recession suggest that the US may be headed toward a prolonged downturn, if not in the next year, then in the next four. But, given these indicators ...